Systematic Assessment of Overheating Risk in UK Dwellings by Housing Typology and Climatic Region

Benjamin Abraham Cherian; Serik Tokbolat; Lucelia Rodrigues

doi:10.65582/rrs.2026.016

Authors

Benjamin Abraham Cherian Department of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom. https://orcid.org/0009-0008-5179-1734
Serik Tokbolat Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9606-5225
Lucelia Rodrigues Department of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0038-6578

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.65582/rrs.2026.016

Keywords:

Overheating, Future Weather, Residential Buildings, Dynamic Simulation, Climate Resilience

Abstract

Rising temperatures and frequent extreme heat events are increasing overheating risk within the UK housing stock, much of which was designed for heat retention rather than dissipation. This study investigates the combined influence of regional climate, dwelling typology, construction age and future weather file methodology on overheating risk across representative UK residential archetypes. Dynamic thermal simulations were conducted for mid-terraced, semi-detached and end-terraced dwellings across southern, midland and northern regions under the medium and high emissions pathways, including 50th and 90th percentile climate projections. Overheating was assessed using CIBSE threshold criteria, with results showing a consistent typological hierarchy in which end-terraced dwellings exhibit the highest overheating and mid-terraced dwellings the lowest, reflecting differences in exposed envelope area. Newer, more highly insulated dwellings demonstrate greater overheating risk, highlighting the trade-off between winter efficiency and summer resilience. A clear regional gradient is evident, with southern locations exceeding thresholds under median projections by mid-century. Divergence between morphing-based and stochastic weather files becomes pronounced under extreme scenarios, where overheating is amplified. The findings demonstrate that overheating risk is climate-amplified, exposure-sensitive, and strongly dependent on modelling assumptions, underscoring the need for integrated assessment in future adaptation strategies.

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